ASII

BI surprise rate cut: a potential boost for sentiment, but growth remain ST focus

• BI’s surprise 25bps policy rate cut should support positive sentiment for the market as JCI has historically demonstrated a clear inverse relationship with the policy rate, with +21% return during the last FY16-18 (125bps) rate cut.

• On rate outlook, our macro team now sees potential shift toward an optimistic case, where it sees potential four rate cuts in 2025, totalling 100 bps for the year. This, combined with expected acceleration in government spending, should drive growth recovery in 2H25.

• Nonetheless, limited positive reaction post the rate announcement from overall market and interest-sensitive sectors indicate that investors’ ST concern remain focus on the earnings outlook.

• Our latest FY25F EPS growth projection of 3% and consensus 12-months forward forecast of 6% should be well priced in at current valuation of 13.2x PE (-0.9SD from 10-year mean). However, weak 2Q25 industry volumes (cement, 4W, 2W) along with soft Apr-May25 results from banks, indicate possible 2Q25 earnings negative surprise and downside risk to estimates.

• We retain our FY25-end JCI target of 7,350 for now, based on our EPS growth of 3% and 13.5x forward PE. We continue to like the Telcos (ISAT, TLKM, EXCL), Consumers (ICBP) and selected banks (BBCA, BTPS) as our preferred picks in 2H25.

Historical sector winners

• During the FY16-18 rate cut period, return for big cap (LQ45: +32%) outpaced small cap (SMC Index: +21%). In terms of sectors, banks have demonstrated the highest inverse relationship during FY16-18 cut (+74-108% return), followed by JSMR (+25%), ASII (+18%).

• In the property sector, our analyst observed that policy rate cuts have historically translated to reduction in discount to RNAV despite limited impact to marketing sales.

• Banks with higher portion of TD are potential winners: Our Banks analyst Victor Stefano sees that rate cut will benefit banks with a higher portion of TD more, such as BBTN (52%), BRIS (38%), and BBRI (36%). This could also alleviate pressure on BMRI and BBNI which have c. 40% of their CA deposit in the special rate category. In terms of loan yield, BBCA and BBRI have the upper hand with their fixed/floating rate of 50/12% and 60/7% of total loans, respectively.

(Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

Market Info - 16 July 2025:

Top Akumulasi

• DSNG - CC, 930
• BBTN - ZP, 1.246
• BRIS - ZP, 2.779
• BTPS - YU, 1.453
• TAPG - BK, 1.244

Top Distribusi

• WIFI - MG, 2.066
• BMRI - ZP, 4.709
• MYOR - LG, 1.997
• RATU - LG, 7.545
• FILM - AZ, 1.655

Top Foreign Buy

• ASII, 77 M, 4.753
• CUAN, 70 M, 1.632
• ANTM, 56 M, 2.989
• ENRG, 52 M, 427
• INDF, 48 M, 8.362

Top Foreign Sell

• BMRI, -797 M, 4.711
• BBCA, -316 M, 8.546
• SSIA, -53 M, 2.628
• PGEO, -43 M, 1.581
• BBNI, -41 M, 4.120

Top Retail Buy

• BMRI, 4.712
• BBCA, 8.548
• WIFI, 2.071
• SSIA, 2.648
• MYOR, 1.995

Top Retail Sell

• BBRI, 3.926
• ASII, 4.760
• BRMS, 446
• PTRO, 4.003
• BBNI, 4.120

Note: Angka disebelah kode saham merupakan harga rata-rata penjualan / pembelian pada akhir perdagangan kemarin.

Telegram Rekomendasi Saham GRATIS: https://bit.ly/QuantumResearch_IDX

Selamat pagi,

17 Juli 2025

IHSG +0.72%, suku bunga turun 25 basis poin, langkah BI untuk menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi

• net sell asing Rp 1.1 triliun

saham net sell

• BMRI RP 797 miliar
• BBCA Rp 316 miliar
• AMAR Rp 144 miliar

saham net buy

• CUAN Rp 108 miliar
• ASII Rp 78 miliar
• ANTM Rp 57 miliar

Value transaksi IHSG lebih dari Rp 16.5 triliun

• BMRI paling banyak di transaksikan dengan value Rp 1.5 triliun
• CUAN value Rp 972 miliar, +2.46%, 1665
• BBRI Rp 949 miliar

news

• GIAA pakai dana right issue RP 7.77 triliun untuk pemeliharaan dan restorasi pesawat
• NOBU dukung BP Tapera salurkan KPR subsidi
• Pemerintah akan kenakan bea keluar batubara
• Komisaris SDMU beli saham di FCA, kepemilikan naik dari 7% menjadi 7.02%
• DGWG resmikan pabrik karbamasi di Cikande
• ENRG selesai private placement RP 338.4 miliar

global
DOW +0.53%, Nasdaq +0.25%

• US Producer Prices di bawah proyeksi
• UK Inflation naik ke 3.6%, tertinggi sejak Januari 2024
• US Industrial output naik 0.3% di bulan Juni, lebih dari perkiraan

komoditas

• Crude Oil +0.23%, USD 66.67
• Gold +0.79%, USD 3351
• Coal 0.99%, USD 110
• Nickel -1.57%, USD 14976
• CPO +1.86%, MYR 4225

DISCLAIMER ON

IHSG - Update (16 Juli 2025)
Turnover: 16.54 T
Frequency: 1,704,837
Net Foreign (RG - Sell): -965.72 M

IHSG ditutup menguat ke level 7,192.02 (+0.72%) pada penutupan perdagangan, Rabu (16/07/2025).

🟢 Ranking Top Net Buy Foreign

1. ASII - 77.99 Miliar
2. CUAN - 70.59 Miliar
3. ANTM - 56.92 Miliar
4. ENRG - 52.89 Miliar
5. INDF - 48.44 Miliar
6. AMMN - 38.21 Miliar
7. BRMS - 32.91 Miliar

🔴 Ranking Top Net Sell Foreign

1. BMRI - 797.27 Triliun
2. BBCA - 316.44 Miliar
3. SSIA - 53.19 Miliar
4. PGEO - 43.66 Miliar
5. BBNI - 41.75 Miliar
6. MDKA - 29.29 Miliar
7. PANI - 28.27 Miliar

By Saham Sukses Berkah |  sahamsuksesberkah.com
Disclaimer On!

Mau PROMO SSBPertamax? Chat @CS_SSB @CS_SSB @CS_SSB untuk amankan paketnya sekarang.

End of Market 16/07

Update Market:

• Indeks saham utama di Eropa, AS, dan Asia kompak melemah tipis, menandakan investor masih wait-and-see terhadap arah kebijakan suku bunga dan risiko geopolitik.
• Stoxx Europe 600 turun 0,2% → S&P 500 Futures melemah 0,1% → MSCI Asia Pacific dan Emerging Markets Index juga bergerak terbatas.
• Brent dan WTI turun 0,3%, sementara emas spot naik 0,5% — mengindikasikan masih ada permintaan safe haven.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) menutup sesi hari ini di zona hijau dan menjadi rally hari ke 8 sejak tgl 7 Juli. Arus liquidity hari ini tidak lagi hanya focus pada saham2 konglomerat Prajogo, namun saham Big 4 Banks kembali mendapatkan liquidity dampak exposure dari keputusan Cut Rate 25 bps oleh Bank Indonesia

Last 7,192.01 | +0.72% | +51.54
High 7,216.81 | Low 7,142.86

Statistik Pasar

Nilai Transaksi : Rp 16.54 Triliun
Volume Transaksi : 297.1 Juta lot
Frekuensi Transaksi : 1.7 Juta

KOMPAS100 Top 5 Gainer

1. ENRG +17.28%
2. SURI +14.74%
3. DSNG +11.56%
4. EMTK +5.69%
5. DEWA +5.56%

KOMPAS100 Top 5 Loser

1. SSIA -8.03%
2. FILM -6.20%
3. MBMA -3.54%
4. KPIG -3.53%
5. AMRT -3.15%

Jual/Beli Bersih Asing (Seluruh Pasar) : -1.09 Triliun
Jual/Beli Bersih Asing (Pasar Reguler) : -965.72 Miliar

5 saham paling banyak dibeli asing (Seluruh pasar)

1. CUAN +108.7 Miliar
2. ASII +78.0 Miliar
3. ANTM +56.9 Miliar
4. ENRG +52.9 Miliar
5. INDF +48.4 Miliar

5 saham paling banyak dijual asing (Seluruh pasar)

1. BMRI -797.3 Miliar
2. BBCA -316.4 Miliar
3. AMAR -144.4 Miliar
4. SSIA -53.2 Miliar
5. HEAL -52.2 Miliar

Disclaimer On
IndoPremier - Wealth Management Unit

5 SAHAM TOP FOREIGN & LOCAL BUY TO DAY:
(16/07/2025)

Top Foreign Buy 📈
ASII = 78,1M
CUAN = 70.6M
ANTM = 56.9M
ENRG = 52.9M
INDF = 48.4M

Top Local Buy 📈
BMRI = 797.3M
BBCA = 316.4M
SSIA = 53.2M
PGEO = 43.7M
BBNI = 41.7M

Market Report akhir sesi by www.creative-trader.id

IHSG mengalami kenaikan 0.72% yang dimotori oleh pembelian investor lokal sebesar 964.64 Miliar rupiah.

Berikut report penutupan sesi kedua:

Top Foreign Buy
ASII, 78M
CUAN, 70.6M
ANTM, 56.9M
ENRG, 52.9M
INDF, 48.4M

Top Local Buy
BMRI, 797.3M
BBCA, 316.4M
SSIA, 53.2M
PGEO, 43.7M
BBNI, 41.7M

Top Gainer
MERI, 24.9%
CDIA, 24.8%
BLOG, 24.8%
NRCA, 24.8%
COIN, 24.7%

Top Loser
MFIN,-14.9%
KRAS,-9.5%
INAI,-8.1%
SSIA,-8%
PSAT,-7.6%

(delay 30 menit)
NIC's SCREENER ALERT !!
[16/07/2025 14:06:44]
Set-Up: BID - OFFER MENARIK
New: #EXCL:2580
Out: /ASII:4750
Disclaimer on t.me/sobattradernic/284139
For REAL TIME ALERT cek https://t.me/sobattradernic/322482

(delay 30 menit)
NIC's SCREENER ALERT !!
[16/07/2025 09:29:40]
Set-Up: VOLUME SPIKE
New: #ASII:4740
Disclaimer on t.me/sobattradernic/284139
For REAL TIME ALERT cek https://t.me/sobattradernic/322482

(delay 30 menit)
NIC's SCREENER ALERT !!
[16/07/2025 09:05:39]
Set-Up: BID - OFFER MENARIK
New: #EMTK:498
Out: /ASII:4720
Disclaimer on t.me/sobattradernic/284139
For REAL TIME ALERT cek https://t.me/sobattradernic/322482